1.1.8 Truth and Diversity

Version 1.4 September 2022                                        (Previous Version)

When it comes down to it, even the most committed scientist has to admit:

We don't really know what the truth is.

That doesn’t mean we know nothing. 

We know many things that are false, bad or disgusting.

We know many things that are very helpful in our day to day lives.

We know when some new understanding is closer to the truth.

But still, at the core, the basis of our beliefs is uncertain.

1.   There are no agreed methods in philosophy for totally resolving what is true.

2.   We should be rational, including taking emotion into account, but reason has it limits.

3.   Our beliefs and choices are caused or chaotic, yet we believe in truth and the validity of action.

4.   The necessity for action, and the desire for the best outcome, drives our need for beliefs.

5.   We can't depend on revelation to obtain certainty.

6.   We have to have faith that making choices based on reason are valid and optimal.

7.   The techniques we use to reason about our beliefs and choices are not infallible.

8.   We must hold our beliefs tentatively, acknowledging the uncertainty and mystery of it all.

1.1.8.1 Uncertainty

We can't escape the first side of the “truth dilemma�: our beliefs are caused or chaotic so they are not necessarily true.  Despite this, we still choose to act as though we can approach the truth: we value Truth.  But we cannot deny that our beliefs may be caused or chaotic, so they may be wrong.

When we say something is true, what we mean roughly is that we are not knowingly being compelled or misled by the laws of nature into believing that it is true, and it appears to accord with reality, with the available evidence and reason, or to at least not be inconsistent with it.

We must allow that others can make different choices when viewing apparently the same evidence.  We don't have infallible methods to prove them wrong.  We may weigh the reasons pro and con differently, or apply Occam’s razor differently, or see consistency where others see incoherence.  One of our core decisions is to choose to be open, to debate alternative conclusions, because we may discover that they are better, closer to the truth, than our current views. 

 

 

1.1.8.2 Diversity

This means we value a diversity of informed opinion.  One of our core values is Diversity.

Another way of saying that we value a diversity of informed opinion is that we acknowledge our uncertainty and we act accordingly: we value uncertainty.  We call uncertainty a derived value, because it is implicit in valuing Diversity.  Acknowledging the possibility of error is to be humble: we value humility, a value derived from uncertainty.

If we value diversity then we must allow for diverse opinions to be expressed and we must listen.  This means we respect other people’s informed opinions: we value Respect.  Other core values discussed in other chapters include Life and Equality, and these also involve respect for other persons, for their physical well-being and dignity, as well as their informed (or uninformed but deeply personal) opinions.  We call Respect an effecting value, because we must act respectfully if we are to benefit from a diversity of opinion, and support life and equality.

If we value Diversity, Life and Equality, and hence derived and effecting values such as Uncertainty and Respect, we must also value Freedom of Expression as a derived value, i.e. it follows from the other values.  Freedom of Expression includes freedom of thought or opinion and freedom of speech.  Though many people don't say so in the same breath, it also includes freedom of written expression and freedom of action and dress that is expressing a thought or opinion. 

Valuing Freedom of Expression is not an absolute right, it must be balanced by core values such as Truth, Reality, Life, Love, Equality and Responsibility.  Freedom especially involves Responsibility in that we should restrain ourselves from saying things that unnecessarily cause harm, or result in violence or death, or are untrue or unfair; and it is reasonable to intervene to prevent others doing so.   

 ●  It is not right to verbally bully young people, either face to face or via social media, to the extent that they become depressed and commit self-harm or suicide, or are ostracised.

●   It is not right to maliciously spread false stories about people, especially if it causes them harm, or if it motivates others to cause harm: Thou shalt not bear false witness (the Ninth Commandment of Judaism and Christianity, Exodus 20:16).

●   It is usually best to not speak disparagingly about something another holds dear just for the fun of it, because of the hurt it may cause or the anger and violence it may incite.  But it is also generally wrong to commit violence or murder against those who say things that merely offend you.

●   It is not right to lie or mislead customers about a product or service you are selling.

●   It is not right to lie or mislead citizens about other political figures or the reality of the situation.

On the other hand, it is OK to speak the truth in moderate terms even where others disagree viscerally.

●   It is OK to say that God doesn’t exist, that religious gurus, prophets and saviours are not inspired by God, and that religious texts may be factually wrong, morally incorrect and sometimes harmful.

●   It is OK to say that the government is bad and certain political leaders should not be in office.

●   It is OK to criticise businesses that cause harm to other people or the environment.

Of course other values such as Equality and Responsibility means we must take a balanced view and limit freedom of action that causes harm.  Freedom itself is not a core value, but we do value freedom of action in some circumstances.

 

1.1.8.3 Confidence

Uncertainty does NOT mean total ignorance

Many people leap from an understanding of our uncertainty to a belief that we know nothing.

This is a false assumption.  We may know nothing for certain, and there is a lot we don't know.  But we do know many things well enough (some would say we believe rather than know) to make reasonable choices about how to live, what to do, how to behave, in the real world.  Without this knowledge (or these beliefs) we are paralysed with uncertainty or we act randomly, chaotically.

Science has a well-developed understanding of uncertainty. 

·       We can measure things, such as the diameter (d) of a ball bearing with a micrometre, but every measurement has a degree of uncertainty because of the limits of our instruments. 

·       In quantum theory, at the smallest sub-atomic level, the act of measurement changes the situation (Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle), but that doesn’t really affect the macro world. 

·       When we make calculations based on uncertain measurements, such as estimating the volume of the ball bearing (π * d³/6) from its diameter (d), the uncertainty compounds, and science has well established methods to calculate such uncertainties. 

·       When we apply any chain of reasoning to observed facts to make some prediction, there is an increase in uncertainty, which can be reduced, not just by making more accurate initial measurements but also by measuring the outcome and comparing it to the prediction.

·       When we make predictions, we can also do what is called a sensitivity analysis, to work out how our conclusions would change if some of our assumptions change.

·       Constant verification that our reasoning leads to verified outcomes increases our confidence in the reasoning and reduces our uncertainty, but it never completely removes all traces of doubt. 

Scientists handle uncertainty as part of their daily life.  We can too.

When we understand the uncertainty, we also understand our confidence level.  Our confidence increases as our uncertainty decreases.  These are measures of external reality not internal response.

Outside of science, we are forced to come to many conclusions so that we may live.

·       We conclude that we might as well treat the world, and others, as though they are real.

·       We conclude that we need the means to obtain food and shelter, otherwise we die.

·       We conclude that we need connections with other people, otherwise we are lonely.

Even though we cannot predict the future in detail, or how other people, or even we ourselves, will behave, we act on what we understand will be the most likely outcomes.  We have to.

We currently phrase our conclusion in this area as follows: