1.1.4 The Need to Choose Despite Uncertainty

Version 1.3 March 2013                                (Previous Version)

Perhaps we ultimately don't know much at all.  Perhaps we’ll never know anything for sure.  Perhaps the universe is ultimately incomprehensible or unknowable.  But the need to live means we all have to take some action, and action requires beliefs and choices.  When we face a clear and present danger, or an opportunity to satisfy a drive, then we do take some action, if we can. 

·       If a car is coming our way and about to hit us, then, if we can, we will jump out of the way. 

·       If we are thirsty and a glass of water is available, then, if we can, we will drink. 

We don't need to know with absolute certainty about everything to act this way.  We do need to have working hypotheses about cars and injuries, thirst and water.  Otherwise we will die.  If we are to take any action in the world, then we must, however tentatively, accept numerous “beliefs� about the world and then, inevitably, live with the consequences of our actions.  We need ways to work out what is factually true enough, and a basis for choosing between alternative courses of action, so that we can act in our own best interests, and perhaps for the sake of others. 

These truths may be held tentatively, and we may change the basis on which we choose actions.  But we do act on the basis of such “beliefs� and “values�.

Certain Knowledge and Uncertain Belief

In the introduction we noted the distinction some people make between “knowledge� and “belief�.  Some people suggest that everything that can be called “knowledge� must be definitely true, otherwise we don’t “know� it for certain.  Things that are not definitely true but that we still hold dear are “beliefs� and these must be dogmatic, because they aren’t definitely true.  This is not a useful distinction, for most people, most of the time. 

It is definitely a good idea to be able to distinguish between what we know for certain and what we believe with some degree of uncertainty.  But what we know for certain is very little.  It is good for us to think about what we know for certain, but (except in philosophy or maths exams) it is almost useless when we have to take action in the world, as we constantly do. 

Our beliefs may be uncertain, but we have to act so we have to work with what we’ve got.  We don't need dogmatic beliefs held in spite of the evidence, but uncertain beliefs based on the facts as we know them, including our emotions and feelings.

To repeat what we said in the introduction, even the scientists who say they don't have “beliefs� must have working hypotheses so that they can think, talk about and conduct science, and these understandings are what most people – like us – call beliefs.

Action and Choice

We are not saying here that the choice is made freely, or that we have free will, only that we in fact hold beliefs, however tentatively or consciously, that alternative actions are possible, and we do in fact make choices, caused, random or freely chosen, to go one way or the other, or to remain still.