3. HISTORY                                                                                                    Version 1.2 March 2012

History aims to describe humanity’s past and identify trends into the future by reasoning about the evidence, like science, and openly debating the process, results and conclusions, but there is a lot of bogus or oversimplified history designed to promote one nation or group over another so we must be careful about it.

3.1 Historical Method Conclusions                                                       (Statement 14)

History, like science, must be an open, transparent, critical process, based on reasoning, evidence, peer review, and persuasion rather than accepting any authority.

●        There is a lot of over simplified, biased or bogus history, used to promote one country, race, religion or a government’s position, based on a small selection of facts, closed to other points of view, drawing conclusions not supported by all the evidence, and presented as the truth that all should believe;

●        But overall, as historians learn more, and more evidence is considered, and the interpretation of the evidence is widely debated, we can often agree on the most reasonable explanations, and over time our historical explanations are revised, becoming more comprehensive;

●        Some say that we can only know parts of what happened – individual stories, specific scientific or historical facts – and that it is dangerous to assemble these facts into an overall story – because this will inevitably be simplified, leaving out important facts, perhaps falsely saying one event caused another, when in reality the causes are to complex to analyse;

●        But seeing the big picture, developing a global narrative, can help us understand where we come from as peoples, so we can learn from history, even if we do have to be aware of the risk of error and that we may learn more in future;

●        So when we make choices about our actions, history helps by showing what has happened before, what has worked and what has failed.  We must try to learn from our mistakes.

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History describes how homo sapiens spread across the world, into Australia and the Americas, adapting to but also changing their new environments, developing farming sooner in areas where plants and animals were easier to domesticate, such as Eurasia, and later in the Americas and Africa, and not at all in Australia.

3.2 Prehistory Conclusions                                                                  (Statement 15)

History explains how people spread across the world and civilizations started:

●        People – homo sapiens sapiens - spread around the world from Africa, as hunter gatherers, walking and on short river and sea crossings, from Africa across Eurasia, to Australia and eventually the Americas and the Pacific islands. 

●        People developed minor differences between “racesâ€�, such as lighter skin and different facial characteristics, as they moved further from the equator, but there are still more genetic differences between individuals of one “raceâ€� than there are between races – we are all much the same. 

●        Many large animals, such as mammoths, died out as humans occupied the new lands, hunting and using fire technology, and the environment changed in many places. 

●        Different parts of each continent had their own variety of natural resources, plants and animals, more or less suited to domestication.  This meant that farming developed earliest in South West Asia, then in East Asia, and later, separately, in North and South America and New Guinea, but did not occur in southern Africa or Australia.

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History describes how farmers began to produce surplus which allowed societies to support rulers, priests, tradespeople and merchants, and how early civilisations adopted different solutions to local problems, developing technology, trade, counting, arithmetic, taxation, money, writing, religion, legal systems and philosophy.

3.3 Conclusions from Antiquity                                                             (Statement 16)

History currently explains:

●        City states and empires grew.  As food production rose, more children lived, and larger populations needed more land.  Surrounding areas were conquered and colonized, the indigenous peoples killed, enslaved or pushed further out.  Other surrounding areas learned the new technology – farming – by copying their neighbors.

●        “Frontierâ€� groups often faced a different environment to the core civilizations, so innovation often began in the periphery and succeeded so well the periphery became part of the core or dominated the core.  In stages, over a long period, people learned more about irrigation for farming, tamed horses, developed the wheel, used beasts of burden, developed sailing and rowing ships; built canals, and so on;

●        Early peoples found gold and silver, which look beautiful but are too soft for tools.  They learned to smelt copper and tin in fires and mix these into bronze, which was harder and made better tools and weapons.  Eurasians discovered wrought iron, made by heating the ore and hammering it into shape, was even better.  East Eurasians (the Chinese) learned early how to cast iron, which was better still - heating the ore so it melts and can be poured into a mold to make more shapes more easily – which West Eurasians learned about many centuries later.  Americans in both the North and South had just begun using bronze when the Europeans invaded, aborting their development. 

●        Nations and empires varied from low end states of loose federations of local warlords perhaps paying tribute or supplying soldiers to an overall leader, to high end states with centralized bureaucracies taxing the people to maintain the elite and/or the military, which required early writing, arithmetic, laws and money.

●        Settled societies always had to deal with the nomadic hunter gatherers on the edges of civilization, who could easily mount raids to steal herd animals, goods or slaves, but were difficult to conquer.  Often they were bribed to leave civilization alone.

●        Infectious diseases, such as small pox and influenza spread from farm animals to the farmers then spread from person to person through settled civilizations.  Sometimes these killed a third or a half of the population: the survivors were lucky or had some immunity.  Infections spread across Eurasia in loops coming back again years or decades later.  Gradually the infections mutated and the survivors gained enough immunity so that they were less fatal or less serious.

●        Major institutions of modern society began, as different peoples organized hierarchical societies (villages to cities, city states to nations and empires), using new warfare techniques, taxation, bureaucracies, law, money, writing, counting and arithmetic;

●        Early thinkers such as Lao Tsu, the Buddha, Mahavira, Confucius, Moses, Socrates, Jesus (and later Mohammed) mixed philosophy science, history and religion to explain the world, devise social rules of behaviour, and discover the meaning and purpose of life.

●        About 2000 years ago, the Roman Empire dominated Western Eurasia (Europe) and the Han empire, dominated Eastern Eurasia (China).  There were smaller, less advanced, Persian and Indian empires in between.

●        In Central America, the Mayan empire rose about 2000 BCE and declined after about 1000 CE.  The Aztecs in central (Mexico) and the Incas in South America (Peru) were large civilizations with cities of 100,000s but less advanced technology than Eurasia.

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History describes how ancient and mediaeval empires developed government differently regarding centralized control, meritocracy or nepotism, accountability and the rule of law, but many collapsed because they failed to address social or environmental challenges due to selfish or narrow minded short sightedness.

3.4 Conclusions concerning Knowledge Development                    (Statement 17)

History currently explains:

●        How scientific knowledge, technology and culture (as well as epidemics) spread across the inhabited continents and islands, especially east-west across Eurasia, but less so north-south between or within the Americas, less into Africa and minimally into Australia and remote islands.

●        How the Chinese Empire was united and flourished, leading the world, especially under the Sung and Ming dynasties, spreading knowledge throughout Eurasia;

●        How other advanced civilizations prospered in India and Persia;

●        How, in western Eurasia, as the Roman empire split and collapsed, the repressive Holy Roman Empire spread by war, through western Europe into German and elsewhere, but science and culture went backwards;

●        How the Muslim Arab Caliphate spread by war, through the Middle East, but become a focus for scientific and cultural development;

●        How further east the Mongolians and other people from the steppes occupied India, China and eastern Europe;

●        How large, prosperous civilizations developed in the Americas (Maya, Aztecs, Incas), and some collapsed prior to the arrival of Europeans;

●        How all civilizations need to face up to (Morris’s 5 horseman of the apocalypse): poverty/famine, disease, war, migration and climate change.

●        How some civilizations overpopulated, overused their resources and destroyed their environments, became isolated, failed to react to crises, lost their technology and skills, and collapsed or became impoverished, and how others met these challenges and survived or expanded:

●        How idiosyncratic environment of Europe caused it to become a diverse set of independent nations, going through the Reformation, the Renaissance and the Enlightenment, with Protestants teaching peasants to read, renewing freedom of thought in Europe.

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History explains how Western Europe adapted east and south Asian technology and colonised much of the world, accidentally spreading Eurasian diseases, exploiting local allies who sided with the invaders against their neighbours, exploiting the Atlantic slave trade, and exploiting their recently acquired industrial superiority.

3.5 Conclusions concerning the Colonial Expansion                              (Statement 18)

Superseded in 3_5

History explains why the Europeans colonized the world and why the Africans, Chinese, Indians, native Americans and aboriginal Australians did not. 

●        How from China to Japan, and to India, Persia, and east Africa,l there was a thriving international economy, over the Indian Ocean, around the coast of south and east Asia, and over the inland Silk Road, from China to Persia;

●        How Europe’s competing nations “discoveredâ€� the Americas, and eventually sailed around Africa to India and China, and “discoveredâ€� Australia and the Pacific;

●        How the Europeans unintentionally (for the most part) spread old Eurasian epidemic diseases (such as smallpox and influenza) which killed up to 90% of the indigenous Americans, Australians and other islanders (eg Hawaiians);

●        How the western European countries closest to the Atlantic Ocean, exploited the Americas, robbing their peoples of their gold and silver, and developed the slave trade to profit from mining as well sugar and cotton plantations in the Americas;

●        How steel swords, guns, cavalry and logistical backup from Europe, as well as their diplomacy, deception and divide and conquer strategies, controlled the remaining indigenous populations, enabling Europeans to occupy these lands and exploit their peoples and their environments;

●        How the gold and silver from the slave trade financed trade with China;

●        How Europe’s success was not because of any innate superiority or innate devilry, but because of technological developments born of geographical accidents, self preserving elite groups on all sides, and the general lack of recognition human rights on all sides;

●        How the colonial expansion initially fed the Industrial Revolution, which spread from England to Europe and now is spreading around the world;

●        How social developments in Europe (including the English, French and American revolutions) promoted human rights at home while ignoring them abroad, promoting slavery, continuing sexism, and maintaining class distinctions.

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History explains how communications sped up, science and technology advanced, human rights abuses were being exposed, racist and sexist explanations of social differences were disputed, slavery was abolished, colonialism collapsed, progress towards women’s equality began and more democratic government evolved.

3.6 Conclusions concerning Human Rights in the Modern World            (Statement 19)

Superseded in 3_6

History currently has explanations for how the colonial world collapsed, communications and knowledge expanded and human rights and democratic national government developed:

●        How there was increasing literacy and public awareness in Europe;

●        How capitalism, socialism and communism developed in response to the perceived benefits and iniquities of the Industrial Revolution;

●        How scientists and engineers discovered electromagnetism (electric motors, telephones, etc), the atom (nuclear energy and bombs), pharmaceuticals, etc;

●        How the First “World Warâ€� and Second World War changed the power alignment;

●        How the moral case for colonialism collapsed, and practical difficulties increased, and the colonial empires disintegrated after the Second World War;

●        How rapid spread of consumer goods, improved transport, vastly improved communications, changed the world for ordinary people in affluent countries;

●        How commercialization is now rampant, and corruption is a problem globally;

●        How the support for human rights is rising, through the United Nations and its agencies, non-government organizations, and the continuing spread of democracy through the ex-colonial world.

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History explains how capitalism triumphed over communism, we now have excessive consumption, governments are struggling to control the increasingly complex financial system, and population growth and increasing pollution per head threatens our environment, and so our global society is at risk of collapse.

3.7 Conclusions concerning the Current World and Future Trends         (Statement 20)

History explains how the current world got to be as it is, dominated by large corporations and national governments, and both history and science help us to identify different scenarios for the future and the choices societies and individuals must face:

●        Socialism had some initial success in Western and Northern Europe, but Communism collapsed – in the Soviet empire and China, though some legacies remain – and the recent so called “triumphâ€� of capitalism and winding back of the welfare state;

●        Over the next few decades there will be more technological development and faster and more complex financial transactions;

●        Other large, complex, sophisticated societies have overstretched themselves, over populated, over stressed the natural environment, and collapsed when other stresses arose, such as weather events (drought or flood) or climate change;

●        As the global population increases to the predicted 9 billion, and economic develop proceeds in all countries, especially rapidly in the developing countries (which is only fair), there will inevitably be will more pollution, more global warming, increased degradation of the environment;

●        If the globe starts to run out of arable land, clean water, cheap fuel and food there will be increasing instability, nation states and their elites will increase border controls and protectionism, and globally we will see greater inequality;

●         Global warming will make all other environmental and population control problems worse. 

●         History shows national democracies are more successful in providing benefits to a wider percentage of the population.  Functioning democracies do not go to war with each other, and do not have famines.  But democracies have limitations because leaders are reluctant to adopt the necessary long term strategies to ensure survival if it risks them being evicted from office and local politics overrides global necessities. 

●        Solutions to these problems are increased, transparent, research to investigate causes and solutions to problems, greater awareness among the electorate, fostering global institutions to address global problems, insulating strategic decision making from the whims of the electorate or parochial governments, while maintaining openness and transparency.

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Part 3: History: Conclusions

History shows that

●        different rates of development are based on geographical accidents rather than innate superiority of any one nation, ethnic group or race;

●        most sexist distinctions and discrimination based on gender or sexual preference are cultural, not innate, and societies are better, and all individuals are happier, if we rise above primitive and inappropriate sexist and sexual distinctions;

●        we are more prosperous, and more likely to support human rights, with better education, particularly of girls (who become mothers and pass on culture);

●        societies are happier and more prosperous when they are democratic, with rulers accountable to the electorate, the separation of powers, the rule of law, appointments on merit, not kinship, and the centralization and constitutional control of coercive powers;

●        functioning democracies do not go to war with each other, and do not have famines;

●        national democracies have limitations because leaders are reluctant to adopt the necessary long term strategies to ensure survival if it risks them being evicted from office and local politics overrides global necessities;

●        we are responsible for educating ourselves as citizens of the world and for ensuring the population in general is educated on the issues that affect us all;

●        even advance societies are prone to collapse, due to the shortsightedness and self interest of their rulers, the apathy and acquiescence of the general populous, and ignoring environmental threats;

●        solutions to these problems are increased, transparent, research, greater awareness among the electorate, fostering global institutions to address global problems, insulating strategic decision making from the whims of the electorate and parochial governments, while maintaining openness and transparency.

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